With the announcement earlier this week that Vantage Pointe condos will be returning the deposits to buyers and will be operating solely as a rental building, the downtown San Diego resale market has managed to jockey itself into a good position.  

With only 449 resale condos, lofts and town homes for sale in the 1500 square acres that comprise downtown San Diego, this keeps the condo inventory at a number that should be absorbed rather quickly.  In the second quarter of 2010 there were an average of 116 sales per month in downtown San Diego. 

As far as new condo sales are concerned, Park Terrace has sold out, The Mark San Diego has 23 remaining condos. Atria has approximately 14 condos remaining, Sapphire Tower has 29 remaining and Bayside condos only have  75 remaining condos with another 5 set to close escrow this week.  There are a few homes remaining at Solara Lofts and some lower end condos at Smart Corner, but this leaves downtown San Diego in a great stance.

If we take the total of resale condos and new sale condos,160 or so,  and add them all together, we only have approximately 610 condos as a standing inventory.  With the exit of Vantage Pointe and no new projects coming up for about 3 years, we are looking at the supply of condos for sale to diminish rapidly.  We have seen a steady supply of buyers so this downtown market could get really interesting. 

It’s hard to predict the future, but supply and demand and has always been a simple principal of economics that is easily explained.  A steady supply of buyers and a limited number of condos for sale could equal appreciation in our marketplace.  The reality is that only time will tell, but the loss of Vantage Pointe is a catalyst that may very well speed up the appreciation cycle for Downtown San Diego properties.

We will write a sequel to this story in exactly 3 months to track the trends and see how the downtown market fares.  What are your predictions?  Is it going to be sunny or gloomy in the downtown San Diego real estate market?